World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict

       In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil，scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’Energy&Fuels¹.
　　Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model².It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve³.A related concept is that⁴ of "Peak Oil." The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.
　　The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.
　　However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for⁵ more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.
　　The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model，the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries，which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil⁶.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014，years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves⁷ are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate，they suggest.

      In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil，scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’Energy&Fuels1.
　　Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of "Peak Oil." The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.
　　The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United Statesin 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.
　　However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.
　　The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model，the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries，which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil6.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014，years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves7 are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate，they suggest.

词汇：

conserve / kən"sɜ:v/ v.保护，保存

irreversible / ˌɪrɪ"vɜ:səbl /adj.不可逆的，不可改变的

crude oil原油

spark / spɑ:k /v.闪耀;激发;鼓舞

insufficient / ˌɪnsə"fɪʃnt/ 不充分的，不足的
curve/ kə:v/ n.曲线

注释：

1.ACS’Energy&Fuels：ACS是American Chemical Society(美国化学学会)的缩写。该学会成立于1876年，现已成为世界最大的科技协会。多年来，ACS一直致力于为全球化学研究机构、企业及个人提供高品质的文献资讯及服务。ACS出版的期刊有34种，这些期刊在化学领域中是被引用次数最多的化学期刊，Energy&Fuels即是其中一本。
2.the Hubbert model：赫伯特模型是美国地质学家M.King Hubbert于1956年创建的，这是一个随时间增长的模型，Hubbert将其引入油气田开发，经推导使其成为一个可以预测油气田累积产量、瞬时产量、年产量和可采储量等多项开发指标的多功能预测模型。
3.a bell shaped curve：钟形曲线
4.that of peak oil：that指代concept。
5.account for：说明，解释
6.conventional crude oil：常规原油
7.oil reserves：石油储量。通常使用复数形式reserves。

The term "a bell shaped curve" appearing in paragraph 2 indicates that global oil production will

A:take the shape of a flat curve. B:keep growing. C:keep declining. D:start to decline after global oil production peaks.

Thirst for Oil

　　Worldwide every day, we devour the energy equivalent of about 200 million barrels of oil. Most of the energy on Earth comes from the Sun. In fact enough energy from the Sun hits the planet’s surface each minute to cover our needs for an entire year, we just need to find an efficient way to use it. So far the energy in oil has been cheaper and easier to get at. But as supplies dwindle, this will change, and we will need to cure our addiction to oil.
　　Burning wood satisfied most energy needs until the steam-driven industrial revolution, when energy-dense coal became the fuel of choice. Coal is still used, mostly in power stations, to cover one quarter of our energy needs, but its use has been declining since we started pumping up oil. Coal is the least efficient, unhealthiest and most environmentally damaging fossil fuel, but could make a comeback, as supplies are still plentiful: its reserves are five times larger than oil’s.
　　Today petroleum, a mineral oil obtained from below the surface of the Earth and used to produce petrol, diesel oil and various other chemical substances, provides around 40% of the world’s energy needs, mostly fuelling automobiles. The US consumes n quarter of all oil, and generates a similar proportion of greenhouse gas emissions.

　　The majority of oil comes from the Middle East, which has half of known reserves. But other significant sources include Russia, North America, Norway, Venezuela and the North Sea. Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge¹ could be a major new US source, to reduce reliance on foreign imports.
　　Most experts predict we will exhaust easily accessible reserves within 50 years, though opinions and estimates vary. We could fast reach an energy crisis in the next few decades, when demand exceeds supply. As conventional reserves become more difficult to access, others such as oil shales and tar sands may be used instead. Petrol could also be obtained from coal.
　　Since we started using fossil fuels, we have released 400 billion tonnes² of carbon, and burning the entire reserves could eventually raise world temperatures by 130 C. Among other horrors, this would result in the destruction of all rainforests and the melting of all Arctic ice.

词汇：

devour / dɪ"vaʊə(r) /v.吞没，耗尽    

accessible / əkˈsesəbl /adj.可使用的，可得到的

dense /dens/adj.密集的    

rainforest /reɪnfɒrɪst/n. (热带)雨林

pump / pʌmp /v.用泵抽吸    

reliance / ɪ"laɪəns /n.依赖，依靠

petroleum / pə"trəʊlɪəm /n.石油，原油    

oil shale油页岩

dwindle / dwɪndl /v.减少    

tar sand沥青砂

diesel oil柴油   

destruction / dɪ"strʌkʃn /n.破坏.毁灭

注释:

“… we will need to cure our addiction to oil.”Why does the author say so?

A:Most of the energy on Earth comes from the Sun. B:Oil supply is increasing all the time. C:Demand for oil is increasing all the time. D:Oil supply is decreasing.

Text 1
World oil production is about to reach a peak and go into its final decline. For years, a handful of petroleum geologists, including me, have been predicting peak oil before 2007, but in an era of cheap oil, few people listened. Lately, several major oil companies seem to have got the message. One of Chevron’s ads says the world is currently burning 2 bbl. of oil for every barrel of new oil discovered. Exxon Mobil says 1987 was the last year that we found more oil worldwide than we burned. Shell reports that it will expand its Canadian oil-sands operations but elsewhere will focus on finding natural gas and not oil. It sounds as though Shell is kissing the oil business goodbye. M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, correctly predicted in 1956 that oil production in the U. S. would peak in the early 1970s--the moment now known as "Hubbert’s Peak", I believe world oil production is about to reach a similar peak.
Finding oil is like fishing in a pond. After several months, you notice that you are not catching as many fish. You could buy an expensive fly rod-new technology. Or you could decide that you have al ready caught most of the fish in the pond. Although increased oil prices (which ought to spur investment in oil production) and new technology help, they can’t work magic. Recent discoveries are modest at best. The oil sands in Canada and Venezuela are extensive, hut the Canadian operations to convert the deposits into transportable oil consume, large amounts of natural gas, which is in short supply.
And technology cannot eliminate the difficulty Hubbert identified: the rate of producing oil depends on the fraction of oil that has not yet been produced. In other words, the fewer the fish in the pond, the harder it is to catch one. Peak production occurs at the halfway point. Based on the avail able data about new oil fields, there are 2,013 billion bbl. of total producible oil. Adding up the oil produced from the birth of the industry until today, we will reach the dreaded 1,006. 5-billion-bbl. halfway mark late this year. For two years, I’ve been predicting that world oil production would reach its peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005. Today, with high oil prices pushing virtually all oil producers to pull up every barrel they can sweat out of the ground, I think it might happen even earlier.

A:People stop searching for oil. B:People decrease the production of oil. C:People use less oil than they used to. D:The oil exploitation is limited.

Section Ⅱ Reading Comprehension Part A Directions: Read the following four texts. Answer the questions below each text by choosing [A], [B], [C] or [D]. Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET 1. Text 1 World oil production is about to reach a peak and go into its final decline. For years, a handful of petroleum geologists, including me, have been predicting peak oil before 2007, but in an era of cheap oil, few people listened. Lately, several major oil companies seem to have got the message. One of Chevron’s ads says the world is currently burning 2 bbl. of oil for every barrel of new oil discovered. Exxon Mobil says 1987 was the last year that we found more oil worldwide than we burned. Shell reports that it will expand its Canadian oil-sands operations but elsewhere will focus on finding natural gas and not oil. It sounds as though Shell is kissing the oil business goodbye. M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, correctly predicted in 1956 that oil production in the U. S. would peak in the early 1970s--the moment now known as "Hubbert’s Peak", I believe world oil production is about to reach a similar peak. Finding oil is like fishing in a pond. After several months, you notice that you are not catching as many fish. You could buy an expensive fly rod-new technology. Or you could decide that you have al ready caught most of the fish in the pond. Although increased oil prices (which ought to spur investment in oil production) and new technology help, they can’t work magic. Recent discoveries are modest at best. The oil sands in Canada and Venezuela are extensive, hut the Canadian operations to convert the deposits into transportable oil consume, large amounts of natural gas, which is in short supply. And technology cannot eliminate the difficulty Hubbert identified: the rate of producing oil depends on the fraction of oil that has not yet been produced. In other words, the fewer the fish in the pond, the harder it is to catch one. Peak production occurs at the halfway point. Based on the avail able data about new oil fields, there are 2,013 billion bbl. of total producible oil. Adding up the oil produced from the birth of the industry until today, we will reach the dreaded 1,006. 5-billion-bbl. halfway mark late this year. For two years, I’ve been predicting that world oil production would reach its peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005. Today, with high oil prices pushing virtually all oil producers to pull up every barrel they can sweat out of the ground, I think it might happen even earlier.

A:People stop searching for oil. B:People decrease the production of oil. C:People use less oil than they used to. D:The oil exploitation is limited.

With the price of oil (goes up), the economy of (oil-producing) countries is (expanding) (at a high rate).

A:goes up B:oil-producing C:expanding D:at a high rate

With the price of oil (goes up), the economy of (oil-producing) countries is (expanding) (at a high rate).

A:goes up B:oil-producing C:expanding D:at a high rate

With the price of oil (goes up), the economy of (oil-producing) countries is (expanding) (at a high rate).

A:goes up B:oil-producing C:expanding D:at a high rate