World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict

       In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oilscientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’Energy&Fuels1.
  Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this pointand some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of "Peak Oil." The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peakafterwards to start on irreversible decline.
  The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.
  Howeverrecent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changespoliticsand other factorsthe scientists say.
  The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new modelthe scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countrieswhich supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil6.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves7 are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debatethey suggest.

      In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oilscientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’Energy&Fuels1.
  Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this pointand some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of "Peak Oil." The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peakafterwards to start on irreversible decline.
  The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United Statesin 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.
  Howeverrecent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changespoliticsand other factorsthe scientists say.
  The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new modelthe scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countrieswhich supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil6.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves7 are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debatethey suggest.

 

词汇:

conserve / kən"sɜ:v/ v.保护,保存

irreversible / ˌɪrɪ"vɜ:səbl /adj.不可逆的,不可改变的

crude oil原油

spark / spɑ:k /v.闪耀;激发;鼓舞

insufficient / ˌɪnsə"fɪʃnt/ 不充分的,不足的
curve/ kə:v/ n.曲线

 

注释:

1.ACS’Energy&FuelsACSAmerican Chemical Society(美国化学学会)的缩写。该学会成立于1876年,现已成为世界最大的科技协会。多年来,ACS一直致力于为全球化学研究机构、企业及个人提供高品质的文献资讯及服务。ACS出版的期刊有34种,这些期刊在化学领域中是被引用次数最多的化学期刊,Energy&Fuels即是其中一本。
2.the Hubbert model:赫伯特模型是美国地质学家M.King Hubbert1956年创建的,这是一个随时间增长的模型,Hubbert将其引入油气田开发,经推导使其成为一个可以预测油气田累积产量、瞬时产量、年产量和可采储量等多项开发指标的多功能预测模型。
3.a bell shaped curve:钟形曲线
4.that of peak oilthat指代concept
5.account for:说明,解释
6.conventional crude oil:常规原油
7.oil reserves:石油储量。通常使用复数形式reserves

The term "a bell shaped curve" appearing in paragraph 2 indicates that global oil production will

A:take the shape of a flat curve. B:keep growing. C:keep declining. D:start to decline after global oil production peaks.

It is usual to classify types of production as job production, batch production and flow production. In job production, products are supplied to the special requirements of a customer, and the whole project is undertaken as one operation which is completed before passing, on to the next. A good example of this kind of work is shipbuilding. In job production a single item is produced at a time, whereas in batch production a number of similar items are produced in order to meet a continuing sales demand Batch sizes vary, but the quantity which is produced amounts to more than immediate requirements, and the surplus production is stored. Finally, in flow production, the manufacture of a product proceeds from one operation to another at a planned rate of output.
It is argued that the type of production method which is employed depends on the development of an individual company. That. is to say, many factories begin manufacturing on a job production basis and proceed, as the volume of production increases, to batch and flow production methods. This is not always the case, however, since the type of production is not necessarily determined by the product volume which is aimed at. In fact, in the car industry, tools are produced by jobbing methods, components are produced by batch methods, and the final product is assembled by flow methods.
Flow production is associated with flow layouts, whereas job and batch production are associated with process layouts. In a process layout, machines of a similar type are grouped together in the same section of the factory, and work in progress is moved from one part of the factory to another. In a flow layout scheme, the manufacturing equipment is arranged in the same sequence as the operations performed on the product. Each of these operations must be capable of processing work at the rate required for assembly of the final product, and the output for each operation must be balanced in order to provide a smooth flow of work.
There are advantages in both types of layout. In a process layout system there is more flexibility, and a greater specialization of machines and labour is possible, while in a flow layout system it is not necessary to maintain a high level of stocks or to demand great skill in the workforce.
Which of the following is NOT mentioned in the passage

A:Job production. B:Flower production. C:Batch. D:Flow production.

It is usual to classify types of production as job production, batch production and flow production. In job production, products are supplied to the special requirements of a customer, and the whole project is undertaken as one operation which is completed before passing, on to the next. A good example of this kind of work is shipbuilding. In job production a single item is produced at a time, whereas in batch production a number of similar items are produced in order to meet a continuing sales demand Batch sizes vary, but the quantity which is produced amounts to more than immediate requirements, and the surplus production is stored. Finally, in flow production, the manufacture of a product proceeds from one operation to another at a planned rate of output.
It is argued that the type of production method which is employed depends on the development of an individual company. That. is to say, many factories begin manufacturing on a job production basis and proceed, as the volume of production increases, to batch and flow production methods. This is not always the case, however, since the type of production is not necessarily determined by the product volume which is aimed at. In fact, in the car industry, tools are produced by jobbing methods, components are produced by batch methods, and the final product is assembled by flow methods.
Flow production is associated with flow layouts, whereas job and batch production are associated with process layouts. In a process layout, machines of a similar type are grouped together in the same section of the factory, and work in progress is moved from one part of the factory to another. In a flow layout scheme, the manufacturing equipment is arranged in the same sequence as the operations performed on the product. Each of these operations must be capable of processing work at the rate required for assembly of the final product, and the output for each operation must be balanced in order to provide a smooth flow of work.
There are advantages in both types of layout. In a process layout system there is more flexibility, and a greater specialization of machines and labour is possible, while in a flow layout system it is not necessary to maintain a high level of stocks or to demand great skill in the workforce.
In paragraph 1, "this kind of work" refers to ______.

A:batch production B:flow production C:mass production D:job production

It is usual to classify types of production as job production, batch production and flow production. In job production, products are supplied to the special requirements of a customer, and the whole project is undertaken as one operation which is completed before passing, on to the next. A good example of this kind of work is shipbuilding. In job production a single item is produced at a time, whereas in batch production a number of similar items are produced in order to meet a continuing sales demand Batch sizes vary, but the quantity which is produced amounts to more than immediate requirements, and the surplus production is stored. Finally, in flow production, the manufacture of a product proceeds from one operation to another at a planned rate of output.
It is argued that the type of production method which is employed depends on the development of an individual company. That. is to say, many factories begin manufacturing on a job production basis and proceed, as the volume of production increases, to batch and flow production methods. This is not always the case, however, since the type of production is not necessarily determined by the product volume which is aimed at. In fact, in the car industry, tools are produced by jobbing methods, components are produced by batch methods, and the final product is assembled by flow methods.
Flow production is associated with flow layouts, whereas job and batch production are associated with process layouts. In a process layout, machines of a similar type are grouped together in the same section of the factory, and work in progress is moved from one part of the factory to another. In a flow layout scheme, the manufacturing equipment is arranged in the same sequence as the operations performed on the product. Each of these operations must be capable of processing work at the rate required for assembly of the final product, and the output for each operation must be balanced in order to provide a smooth flow of work.
There are advantages in both types of layout. In a process layout system there is more flexibility, and a greater specialization of machines and labour is possible, while in a flow layout system it is not necessary to maintain a high level of stocks or to demand great skill in the workforce.
Which of the following statements is true about this passage

A:Process layouts are appropriate to both job and batch production. B:Job production is aimed at producing several items at a time. C:A single product requires a single production method. D:The production methods depend on individual company development.

Text 3

It is usual to classify types of production as job production, batch production and flow production. In job production, products are supplied to the special requirements of a customer, and the whole project is undertaken as one operation which is completed before passing, on to the next. A good example of this kind of work is shipbuilding. In job production a single item is produced at a time, whereas in batch production a number of similar items are produced in order to meet a continuing sales demand Batch sizes vary, but the quantity which is produced amounts to more than immediate requirements, and the surplus production is stored. Finally, in flow production, the manufacture of a product proceeds from one operation to another at a planned rate of output.
It is argued that the type of production method which is employed depends on the development of an individual company. That. is to say, many factories begin manufacturing on a job production basis and proceed, as the volume of production increases, to batch and flow production methods. This is not always the case, however, since the type of production is not necessarily determined by the product volume which is aimed at. In fact, in the car industry, tools are produced by jobbing methods, components are produced by batch methods, and the final product is assembled by flow methods.
Flow production is associated with flow layouts, whereas job and batch production are associated with process layouts. In a process layout, machines of a similar type are grouped together in the same section of the factory, and work in progress is moved from one part of the factory to another. In a flow layout scheme, the manufacturing equipment is arranged in the same sequence as the operations performed on the product. Each of these operations must be capable of processing work at the rate required for assembly of the final product, and the output for each operation must be balanced in order to provide a smooth flow of work.
There are advantages in both types of layout. In a process layout system there is more flexibility, and a greater specialization of machines and labour is possible, while in a flow layout system it is not necessary to maintain a high level of stocks or to demand great skill in the workforce.
Which of the following is NOT mentioned in the passage

A:Job production. B:Flower production. C:Batch. D:Flow production.

Text 3

It is usual to classify types of production as job production, batch production and flow production. In job production, products are supplied to the special requirements of a customer, and the whole project is undertaken as one operation which is completed before passing, on to the next. A good example of this kind of work is shipbuilding. In job production a single item is produced at a time, whereas in batch production a number of similar items are produced in order to meet a continuing sales demand Batch sizes vary, but the quantity which is produced amounts to more than immediate requirements, and the surplus production is stored. Finally, in flow production, the manufacture of a product proceeds from one operation to another at a planned rate of output.
It is argued that the type of production method which is employed depends on the development of an individual company. That. is to say, many factories begin manufacturing on a job production basis and proceed, as the volume of production increases, to batch and flow production methods. This is not always the case, however, since the type of production is not necessarily determined by the product volume which is aimed at. In fact, in the car industry, tools are produced by jobbing methods, components are produced by batch methods, and the final product is assembled by flow methods.
Flow production is associated with flow layouts, whereas job and batch production are associated with process layouts. In a process layout, machines of a similar type are grouped together in the same section of the factory, and work in progress is moved from one part of the factory to another. In a flow layout scheme, the manufacturing equipment is arranged in the same sequence as the operations performed on the product. Each of these operations must be capable of processing work at the rate required for assembly of the final product, and the output for each operation must be balanced in order to provide a smooth flow of work.
There are advantages in both types of layout. In a process layout system there is more flexibility, and a greater specialization of machines and labour is possible, while in a flow layout system it is not necessary to maintain a high level of stocks or to demand great skill in the workforce.
In paragraph 1, "this kind of work" refers to ______.

A:batch production B:flow production C:mass production D:job production

Text 3

It is usual to classify types of production as job production, batch production and flow production. In job production, products are supplied to the special requirements of a customer, and the whole project is undertaken as one operation which is completed before passing, on to the next. A good example of this kind of work is shipbuilding. In job production a single item is produced at a time, whereas in batch production a number of similar items are produced in order to meet a continuing sales demand Batch sizes vary, but the quantity which is produced amounts to more than immediate requirements, and the surplus production is stored. Finally, in flow production, the manufacture of a product proceeds from one operation to another at a planned rate of output.
It is argued that the type of production method which is employed depends on the development of an individual company. That. is to say, many factories begin manufacturing on a job production basis and proceed, as the volume of production increases, to batch and flow production methods. This is not always the case, however, since the type of production is not necessarily determined by the product volume which is aimed at. In fact, in the car industry, tools are produced by jobbing methods, components are produced by batch methods, and the final product is assembled by flow methods.
Flow production is associated with flow layouts, whereas job and batch production are associated with process layouts. In a process layout, machines of a similar type are grouped together in the same section of the factory, and work in progress is moved from one part of the factory to another. In a flow layout scheme, the manufacturing equipment is arranged in the same sequence as the operations performed on the product. Each of these operations must be capable of processing work at the rate required for assembly of the final product, and the output for each operation must be balanced in order to provide a smooth flow of work.
There are advantages in both types of layout. In a process layout system there is more flexibility, and a greater specialization of machines and labour is possible, while in a flow layout system it is not necessary to maintain a high level of stocks or to demand great skill in the workforce.
Which of the following statements is true about this passage

A:Process layouts are appropriate to both job and batch production. B:Job production is aimed at producing several items at a time. C:A single product requires a single production method. D:The production methods depend on individual company development.

(Many) a problem concerning the agricultural (production) (have been) solved (this way).( )

A:Many B:production C:have been D:this way

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