World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict

       In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil，scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’Energy&Fuels¹.
　　Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model².It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve³.A related concept is that⁴ of "Peak Oil." The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.
　　The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.
　　However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for⁵ more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.
　　The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model，the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries，which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil⁶.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014，years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves⁷ are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate，they suggest.

      In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil，scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’Energy&Fuels1.
　　Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of "Peak Oil." The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.
　　The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United Statesin 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.
　　However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.
　　The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model，the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries，which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil6.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014，years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves7 are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate，they suggest.

词汇：

conserve / kən"sɜ:v/ v.保护，保存

irreversible / ˌɪrɪ"vɜ:səbl /adj.不可逆的，不可改变的

crude oil原油

spark / spɑ:k /v.闪耀;激发;鼓舞

insufficient / ˌɪnsə"fɪʃnt/ 不充分的，不足的
curve/ kə:v/ n.曲线

注释：

1.ACS’Energy&Fuels：ACS是American Chemical Society(美国化学学会)的缩写。该学会成立于1876年，现已成为世界最大的科技协会。多年来，ACS一直致力于为全球化学研究机构、企业及个人提供高品质的文献资讯及服务。ACS出版的期刊有34种，这些期刊在化学领域中是被引用次数最多的化学期刊，Energy&Fuels即是其中一本。
2.the Hubbert model：赫伯特模型是美国地质学家M.King Hubbert于1956年创建的，这是一个随时间增长的模型，Hubbert将其引入油气田开发，经推导使其成为一个可以预测油气田累积产量、瞬时产量、年产量和可采储量等多项开发指标的多功能预测模型。
3.a bell shaped curve：钟形曲线
4.that of peak oil：that指代concept。
5.account for：说明，解释
6.conventional crude oil：常规原油
7.oil reserves：石油储量。通常使用复数形式reserves。

Which of the following is NOT true of the Hubbert model?

A:It successfully predicted that oil production peaked in the U.S.in 1970. B:It has been used to predict oil production in many countries. C:It is insufficient to explain oil production cycles in some countries. D:It provides a very realistic and accurate oil production.

World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict

       In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil，scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’Energy&Fuels¹.
　　Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model².It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve³.A related concept is that⁴ of "Peak Oil." The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.
　　The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.
　　However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for⁵ more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.
　　The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model，the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries，which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil⁶.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014，years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves⁷ are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate，they suggest.

      In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil，scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’Energy&Fuels1.
　　Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of "Peak Oil." The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.
　　The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United Statesin 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.
　　However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.
　　The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model，the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries，which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil6.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014，years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves7 are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate，they suggest.

词汇：

conserve / kən"sɜ:v/ v.保护，保存

irreversible / ˌɪrɪ"vɜ:səbl /adj.不可逆的，不可改变的

crude oil原油

spark / spɑ:k /v.闪耀;激发;鼓舞

insufficient / ˌɪnsə"fɪʃnt/ 不充分的，不足的
curve/ kə:v/ n.曲线

注释：

1.ACS’Energy&Fuels：ACS是American Chemical Society(美国化学学会)的缩写。该学会成立于1876年，现已成为世界最大的科技协会。多年来，ACS一直致力于为全球化学研究机构、企业及个人提供高品质的文献资讯及服务。ACS出版的期刊有34种，这些期刊在化学领域中是被引用次数最多的化学期刊，Energy&Fuels即是其中一本。
2.the Hubbert model：赫伯特模型是美国地质学家M.King Hubbert于1956年创建的，这是一个随时间增长的模型，Hubbert将其引入油气田开发，经推导使其成为一个可以预测油气田累积产量、瞬时产量、年产量和可采储量等多项开发指标的多功能预测模型。
3.a bell shaped curve：钟形曲线
4.that of peak oil：that指代concept。
5.account for：说明，解释
6.conventional crude oil：常规原油
7.oil reserves：石油储量。通常使用复数形式reserves。

Who develop the new version of the Hubbert model ?

A:American scientists. B:Kuwaiti scientists. C:British scientists. D:Scientists of 47 major oil-producing countries.

齐变模式（concerted model）

序变模式（sequential model）

模型（Model）

数学模型 (mathematical model)

When will a company renew an existing model

A:When it sells well and brings in a good profit. B:When it needs improvement to meet the needs of users. C:When some of its features have to be deleted. D:When certain options have to be added.

For nearly ten years, the Unified Modeling Language (UML) has been the industry standard for visualizing, specifying, constructing, and documenting the (71) of a software-intensive system. As the (72) standard modeling language, the UML facilitates communication and reduces confusion among project (73) . The recent standardization of UML 2.0 has further extended the language's scope and viability. Its inherent expressiveness allows users to (74) everything from enterprise information systems and distributed Web-based applications to real-time embedded systems.
The UML is not limited to modeling software. In fact, it is expressive enough to model (75) systems, such as workflow in the legal system, the structure and behavior of a patient healthcare system, software engineering in aircraft combat systems, and the design of hardware.
To understand the UML, you need to form a conceptual model of the language, and this requires learning three major elements: the UML's basic building blocks, the rules that dictate how those building blocks may be put together, and some common mechanisms that apply throughout the UML.

A:model B:code C:test D:modify

动物模型（animal model）